ADB Forecasts Robust Growth for Cambodia, Sees Risks to Competitiveness
Policies to support ease of doing business will boost entrepreneurship, deepen the integration of local businesses in the manufacturing sector, and create more and better jobs in Cambodia. Photo: ADB.
PHNOM PENH, CAMBODIA (11 April 2018) — Cambodia’s economy is expected to grow at 7% in 2018 and 2019, bolstered by solid global economic growth, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)’s flagship annual economic publication, Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2018, released today.
“Cambodia’s strong economic growth in the near term is supported by robust exports, as well as higher foreign direct investment inflows, tourism activities, and domestic demand. However, rising wages, difficulty in doing business, and intensifying competition can undermine the country’s competitiveness,” said Jan Hansen, ADB’s Senior Country Economist. “Policies to support ease of doing business will boost entrepreneurship, deepen the integration of local businesses in the manufacturing sector, and create more and better jobs.”
Cambodia’s industrial output is likely to continue to grow by 9.6% this year, with a slowdown in the garments and footwear industries offset by stronger growth in emerging industries, such as electrical parts, automobile components, bicycles, milled rice, and rubber, according to the report. Growth in services is expected to remain robust at 7% this year, supported by solid numbers of tourist arrivals. Assuming favorable weather conditions, Cambodia’s agriculture is expected to growth at 1.8% in 2018.
Fiscal policy is expected to be more expansionary this year than in 2017, with continuing revenue growth more than offset by higher spending and the fiscal deficit target rising to 5.1%. The current account deficit (excluding official transfers) is seen widening this year as costs for oil and other imported products rise in a fast-growing economy. Higher investment inflows and official loans from abroad will cover the current account deficit and build up gross foreign reserves to about $10 billion by the end of 2018, providing 6.1 months of import cover.
The economic outlook is subject to downside risks, heightened by the vulnerability of Cambodia’s financial sector to global financial volatility traceable to an almost doubling bank credit-to-gross domestic product ratio over the past 5 years to 76% last year. While recently introduced credit risk and capital buffer regulations have helped push down the bank credit growth to 15% by the end of last year, credit related to the real estate sector is growing much faster.
ADB, based in Manila, is dedicated to reducing poverty in Asia and the Pacific through inclusive economic growth, environmentally sustainable growth, and regional integration. Established in 1966, it is owned by 67 members—48 from the region.